Metal packaging growth outlook strengthens

New data released at METPACK 2026 points to continued growth for metal packaging, driven by beverage cans, recycling performance and renewed industry investment.

The global metal packaging sector is entering a new growth phase, with the market forecast to expand from an estimated US$155 billion in 2025 to US$185 billion by 2031, according to the newly released METPACK 2026 Metal Packaging Outlook report.

Released to coincide with the opening of metal packaging trade show METPACK 2026 in Essen, Germany, this week, the report positions metal packaging as one of the packaging industry’s most resilient and sustainability-focused segments, despite ongoing geopolitical and raw material pressures.

Prepared for METPACK by packaging consultant Mark Smyth of MS Can Solutions using data from Smithers, the report estimates that metal packaging now accounts for around 13 per cent of the global packaging market. It forecasts compound annual growth of approximately 3.0 per cent between 2026 and 2031, with beverage cans continuing to drive expansion.

According to the report, cans account for approximately 58 per cent of the total metal packaging market by value, with beverage cans representing the strongest growth engine. Beverage cans are now estimated at US$41 billion globally and forecast to reach US$50 billion by 2031.

The study notes that beverage cans benefit from lightweighting, high-speed production efficiencies and strong recycling economics, with aluminium beverage cans now achieving recycling rates above 75 per cent in major markets. Steel packaging recycling rates exceed 80 per cent in Europe.

The report also highlights the growing role of sustainability and circularity in shaping packaging decisions.

“Several long-term drivers continue to support the metal packaging industry. Sustainability is a key factor,” the report states.

It points to increasing regulatory pressure on plastics, rising Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) costs in Europe, and the strong economic value of recycled aluminium and steel as factors supporting metal packaging’s competitive position. Aluminium scrap, for example, is valued at more than US$1250 per tonne, while packaging steel retains positive recycling value.

The outlook also identifies a gradual shift from plastic and glass into metal packaging formats in selected applications, driven by circular economy goals, recyclability and total cost of ownership considerations.

At the same time, the report warns that geopolitical instability and energy costs remain major challenges for the sector. Rising aluminium and steel prices, coupled with ongoing tensions in the Middle East, are expected to increase manufacturing and logistics costs throughout the packaging supply chain.

Despite this, the industry outlook remains broadly optimistic.

“The metal packaging sector entered 2026 with cautious optimism,” the report states, noting improved order books, renewed capital expenditure and rising demand across beverages, food and household products.

METPACK 2026 officially opened at Messe Essen on 5 May, bringing together more than 350 exhibitors from 32 countries across around 30,000 square metres of exhibition space. Organisers reported a 15 per cent increase in floor space compared with the previous edition.

METPACK project manager Christina Kleinpaß said the strong exhibitor response reflects the industry’s momentum.

“It is precisely this mix that makes METPACK so successful. The 15 per cent increase in exhibition space underlines its importance,” Kleinpaß said.

New features at this year’s event include the debut of the “Talk in a Can” forum – a live presentation and discussion space located on the show floor – alongside the established METPACK Conference program.

The conference also marks a milestone for the event, with Clarissa Odewald, CEO of thyssenkrupp Rasselstein, becoming the first female keynote speaker in the conference’s history.