PKN EXCLUSIVE: The packaging sector is entering what Matthew Rogerson, founder of The Pack Scout, describes as “its most disruptive decade in living memory”. In his newly released report, Sustainable Packaging 2035, published by ThePackHub, Rogerson sets out the structural shifts already in motion. PKN asked him to share his key insights relevant to the Australasian packaging industry.
According to Rogerson, three forces will dominate. First, regulation is moving faster than infrastructure. “Governments are setting ambitious targets – 100% recyclable, reusable or compostable packaging by 2030 in many markets – but the supporting systems are uneven and underfunded,” he says. Companies that plan only for compliance will be left exposed.
Second, the cost equation is set to flip. By 2032–2035, recycled and bio-based inputs will undercut virgin plastics, overturning decades of procurement logic. “Those who invest early in secondary and renewable feedstocks will enjoy a structural cost advantage,” Rogerson explains.
Third, packaging will become inherently digital. QR codes, digital product passports and AI-driven traceability will no longer be pilots but “expected infrastructure”. By 2035, Rogerson predicts, every package will carry a digital layer, showing regulators how it complies, consumers how to dispose of it, and businesses how to optimise its design.
Australasian challenges and opportunities
Closer to home, Rogerson identifies both promise and pitfalls. Ambitious commitments from APCO and government set the region apart, but patchy recycling infrastructure and high logistics costs create executional hurdles.
Australasian exporters must also contend with dual compliance. “A pack acceptable in Sydney may be non-compliant in Paris or Shanghai. Companies must design through a global lens,” he warns.
And then there is consumer behaviour. While Australians and New Zealanders are vocal in calling for less plastic, recycling rates lag. The opportunity, Rogerson argues, lies in bridging aspiration with reality – designing packs that are intuitive, transparent and aligned with actual disposal systems.
From claims to proof
Consumer expectations are evolving fast. Where once a ‘100% recyclable’ logo was enough, today’s consumers are demanding evidence that packaging can be recovered where they live.
“The most profound shift is from claims to proof,” Rogerson says. By 2030, consumers will reward honesty over hype. If a compostable coffee cup can’t be composted in a local system, it will be judged a failure. Success will go to brands that design for usability and back their claims with real-world outcomes.
EPR as a cost driver
Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) will play an increasingly central role. By 2035, Rogerson expects European-style fee modulation to reach Australasia: “Companies will pay more if their packaging is harder to recycle and less if it is designed for recovery.”
This shift turns sustainability into a cost-avoidance strategy. Poor design will no longer simply attract reputational damage – it will carry a direct financial penalty.
The alignment challenge
For Rogerson, the single biggest disruptor is not a new material or regulation, but misalignment within companies. Procurement, marketing, operations and sustainability often pull in different directions. “Unless these teams are synchronised, every packaging decision becomes a compromise,” he cautions.
His mantra for the decade is “Align or decline.” Companies that achieve alignment internally and across their supply chains will scale sustainability faster and more profitably. Those that don’t risk drowning in costs and compliance shocks.
Materials with momentum
The report points to recycled and bio-based polymers as the materials with the brightest future. Recycled PET and PE are forecast to undercut virgin plastic by 2032, while biopolymers such as PHA and PEF are maturing into renewable options with scalable economics.
By contrast, Rogerson says compostables are oversold. “Fewer than 10 per cent of Australasian households have reliable industrial composting access. Too often compostables end up in landfill, behaving little differently from conventional plastic.” They have a role in controlled closed-loop systems, he says, but are no silver bullet.
Digital packaging as invisible infrastructure
By 2035, digital tools will be embedded in every pack. Two-dimensional barcodes will connect recyclability data, compliance details and consumer disposal instructions. Retailers will scan for traceability, regulators for compliance, and consumers for convenience.
AI, meanwhile, will transform design decision-making. “Instead of months of manual debate, AI will model packaging designs that optimise for cost, runnability, recyclability and carbon simultaneously. What once took months will be done in hours,” Rogerson predicts.
Lessons for Australasia
When asked what Australasian companies should stop and start doing, Rogerson is direct. Stop chasing “good news” pilots that don’t scale. Start running alignment audits across functions. “If procurement, marketing, operations and sustainability teams each have different definitions of success, that’s your biggest risk,” he says.
Ultimately, success by 2035 will belong to those who integrate regulatory foresight, operational efficiency and consumer trust – and who act now to align strategy and execution.
Europe leads, but Australasia must adapt
Rogerson points to Europe as the pace-setter, where regulation, infrastructure and consumer pressure converge. With the EU’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation and Digital Product Passport initiative shaping global standards, Australasian exporters must take note.
“Even if local regulation is slower, Europe’s rules will ripple out,” he says. “Any company with export ambitions should assume these frameworks will influence their packaging portfolios.”
A guide, not just a report
More than a market research document, Sustainable Packaging 2035 is designed as a practical guide for industry. It offers modelling, foresight tools and frameworks to help companies future-proof packaging portfolios, strengthen operational resilience, and engage consumers with credibility.
For Australasian packaging leaders, the message is clear: the next decade will be defined by disruption, but also by opportunity for those prepared to align, adapt and act.
PKN readers are eligible for a 25% discount on the report. Contact Paul Jenkins at ThePackHub: e:paul.jenkins@thepackhub.com
