Fewer than half of global packaging industry leaders believe their companies are prepared for 2035, with AI, data, circularity and integrated systems identified as critical capabilities for the decade ahead.
Speaking at the Global Packaging Symposium at Tokyo Pack 2026, Todd Bukowski, principal at US-based packaging consultancy PTIS Global, presented findings from its Future of Packaging research, comparing global industry perspectives with those of Japanese packaging professionals.
The findings point to an industry facing substantial technological, regulatory and sustainability challenges, with many businesses still focused on short-term priorities rather than planning for longer-term transformation.
Bukowski said fewer than half of the global thought leaders surveyed believed their organisations were ready for the future. Those reporting a lack of preparedness frequently cited short-term business thinking or a focus on meeting immediate regulatory requirements rather than developing forward-looking strategies.
Japanese respondents were approximately 10 percentage points more likely to consider their organisations future-ready, potentially reflecting a stronger emphasis on strategic foresight.
Sustainability challenges persist
The research found that sustainability remained a dominant concern, although its prominence had declined somewhat compared with previous global surveys.
When asked which challenges would still require attention in 2035, 46 per cent of Japanese respondents identified climate change and packaging, compared with 38 per cent globally.
Plastic recyclability was a concern for 34 per cent of Japanese respondents, more than double the global figure of 16 per cent. Japanese respondents were also more concerned about societal and consumer perceptions of packaging, at 33 per cent compared with 25 per cent globally.
Conversely, global respondents expressed greater concern about plastics remaining in the environment, at 39 per cent compared with 28 per cent in Japan.
A lack of proactive industry action was another significant concern internationally, identified by 30 per cent of global respondents compared with 17 per cent in Japan.
Recycling infrastructure was a shared concern, cited by 37 per cent of global respondents and 33 per cent of Japanese respondents.
Japan backs chemical recycling
One of the clearest differences between the two groups was the importance assigned to chemical recycling.
Japanese respondents consistently rated chemical recycling more highly than their global counterparts, viewing it as a priority technology for returning polymers to circulation.
Bukowski suggested Japan's technological capabilities, limited landfill space and focus on resource recovery could create conditions for advanced recycling technologies to develop more rapidly than in other markets.
Labour shortages were another prominent Japanese concern, with artificial intelligence, machine learning and robotics identified as potential solutions.
Global respondents placed greater emphasis on regulation and legislation, technologies supporting material recovery, and the need for packaging technical skills and adaptability.
Japanese respondents, meanwhile, assigned greater importance to AI, machine learning and strategic foresight as future skills.
From materials to integrated systems
A central theme of Bukowski's presentation was the need for packaging companies to move beyond incremental material improvements towards integrated systems capable of delivering measurable circular outcomes.
Using the Three Horizons model of future development, he outlined the progression from conventional sustainability initiatives, such as lightweighting and recyclable structures, through to more ambitious projects incorporating recycled content, refillable formats and alternative materials.
The third horizon, extending towards 2038, involves transformational systems requiring collaboration across entire value chains.
These include advanced recycling, widespread incorporation of post-consumer recycled content, composting infrastructure, reusable packaging systems and recovery solutions for emerging markets.
Bukowski explained that these changes cannot be delivered by individual companies acting independently.
Reusable and refillable packaging, for example, requires coordinated collection, deposits, returns, cleaning, refilling and redistribution.
Compostable packaging faces similar challenges where the material may meet compostability specifications but is not accepted by the infrastructure responsible for processing organic waste.
The distinction between technical and operational recyclability was particularly important.
Bukowski referred to discussions at a recent Sustainable Packaging Coalition meeting about moving beyond designing packaging that is theoretically recyclable towards demonstrating that it is actively recovered and recycled at meaningful rates.
He cited shrink sleeves as an example of how a packaging component considered recyclable in isolation could interfere with optical sorting equipment when applied to a container.
The implication is that packaging performance must be assessed within the systems responsible for its recovery, rather than solely on the properties of individual materials.
Data becomes critical currency
Bukowski identified data as an essential enabler of future circular packaging systems.
As extended producer responsibility (EPR) schemes expand and regulations such as the European Union's Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) introduce additional obligations, businesses will need much more detailed information about packaging composition, material health, recyclability and recovery.
This information will need to flow between suppliers, packaging converters, brand owners, governments, producer responsibility organisations, material recovery facilities and reuse operators.
Bukowski illustrated the scale of the challenge with an example of a furniture company managing approximately 10,000 packaging SKUs without comprehensive packaging specifications.
Historically, the business had focused on sourcing furniture rather than documenting packaging components. Emerging EPR requirements in the United States meant it now needed detailed information about packaging materials it had never previously tracked.
For reusable packaging, data systems will also need to record how often individual packs are circulated, returned, cleaned and refilled.
Interoperability between these systems will therefore become essential.
AI emerges as leading disruptor
Bukowski identified artificial intelligence as the leading technological disruptor in the research, moving from a relatively peripheral consideration towards a core packaging capability.
He presented the PTIS Integrated Packaging Value Model for 2035, placing four priorities at the centre of future packaging development: AI, data, circularity and integrated systems.
The model recognises the influence of consumers, technology and R&D, policy, and health considerations on packaging design and development.
Bukowski said businesses would need to develop internal capabilities across these areas as competitors also sought to apply AI and digital technologies to packaging operations.
Policy would become a more significant driver of innovation, influencing material selection, investment and design through regulation, financial incentives and EPR-related costs.
Material health moves up the agenda
Another emerging priority is material health, with greater scrutiny expected of the substances used throughout packaging structures.
Bukowski identified inks, coatings, adhesives and labels as components requiring closer attention as regulatory and consumer expectations evolve.
He pointed to concerns about PFAS, bisphenol A (BPA) and microplastics, suggesting that scientific understanding of microplastics and their implications would develop substantially over the next decade.
Material health would become an underlying consideration in packaging development alongside circularity and regulatory compliance.
Foresight over reaction
For Japan, Bukowski identified advanced recycling, integrated recovery infrastructure, data connectivity and workforce capability as particularly important opportunities.
While AI and robotics could help address labour shortages, he emphasised that communication and other interpersonal skills would remain essential.
He also encouraged the industry to strengthen its capacity for strategic foresight, planning for the packaging environment of 2035 rather than responding only to immediate market and regulatory pressures.
The research points to a significant change in how packaging value will be defined over the coming decade: not simply by the materials used or their technical recyclability, but by how effectively packaging functions within connected, data-enabled circular systems.
