Smithers reports that global e-commerce packaging is on track to exceed $105 billion by 2031 – but growth is being reshaped by right-sizing, regulation and a decisive shift towards more efficient, circular formats.
The global e-commerce packaging market continues to expand – but the story is no longer just about volume. According to new research from Smithers, the sector reached $78.4 billion in 2025, growing 7.8% year-on-year, and is forecast to hit $105.2 billion by 2031.
Behind that growth sits a structural shift in how packaging is designed, specified and valued.
Efficiency is rewriting the rules
Smithers reports that corrugated remains dominant, accounting for close to 80% of e-commerce packaging today. But its share is gradually declining as right-sizing gains traction across fulfilment networks.
This is less about substitution, and more about optimisation.
Retailers are reducing void fill, cutting dimensional weight, and rethinking pack formats to align with shipping economics. The result is fewer materials per shipment – even as shipment volumes continue to rise.
At the same time, flexible packaging is accelerating.
Smithers identifies it as the fastest-growing format, driven by lower weight, shipping efficiency and improving recyclability credentials.
For packaging suppliers, this signals a clear direction: performance is now measured not just in protection, but in logistics efficiency.
Fashion drives volume, but behaviour drives change
Clothing, footwear and accessories remain the dominant e-commerce category, and will continue to drive packaging demand through to 2031, according to Smithers.
This reflects the underlying behaviour of e-commerce – frequent, low-value, single-item shipments.
But this same dynamic is also forcing change.
High return rates, increasing scrutiny on waste, and the rise of recommerce are pushing brands to rethink packaging durability, reuse potential and reverse logistics compatibility.
From sustainability initiative to operational requirement
One of the clearest signals from the Smithers report is the normalisation of what were once considered sustainability “add-ons”.
Ships in Own Container (SIOC), for example, is moving from optional to expected – eliminating secondary packaging and reducing both cost and material use.
At the same time, regulation is accelerating system-level change.
Europe’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) is mandating reuse and refill in parts of the e-commerce ecosystem, effectively shifting the conversation beyond recyclability towards full system redesign.
Material shift gathers pace
The direction of travel is clear. There is a continued move away from traditional plastics towards fibre-based formats, recycled content and bioplastics – driven by both policy pressure and brand commitments.
But this transition is not linear.
Trade-offs between durability, cost, weight and recyclability remain, particularly in high-return categories like fashion.
What it means
Reading into the Smithers analysis, it seems the next phase of e-commerce packaging will be defined less by growth in volume, and more by growth in sophistication.
Right-sizing, material efficiency, reuse models and regulatory compliance are converging into a new baseline expectation.
For the industry, the challenge is no longer simply to supply packaging at scale – but to design systems that work across the full lifecycle of e-commerce.
You can access Smithers' Future of Ecommerce packaging to 2031 here
