Smithers forecasts circular packaging material growth

Greater sustainability, via the use of recycled materials and more fibre-based formats, is a dominant trend across packaging design. It will only accelerate as new measures, such as the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) 2025/40, enter into force, writes Smithers' John Nelson.

The Future of Sustainable Packaging: Long-term Strategic Forecasts to 2034 – a new market report from Smithers – tracks this innovation across a global industry valued at $1.23 trillion in 2024. Its data set segments global, regional, and major national markets, giving current and future volume shares for recycled and circular materials used in metal, glass, plastic, and fibre packs.

This is contextualised with expert analysis of the latest technology developments in material selection, end-of-life processing, and green labelling across packaging supply chains.

This is done with direct reference to current and future brand owner and regulatory requirements. It examines how laws like the PPWR, mandatory deposit recovery programs (DRS), and Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes will reshape the business landscape; and how packaging can evolve to balance consumer convenience and cost with increased regulatory scrutiny.

Across the ten years to 2034, the report forecasts fibre-based packaging materials (paper, board, and moulded pulp) will continue to grow their share, increasing to over 40 per cent in 2034, as new formats and innovations that do not compromise consumer convenience are developed. The greater availability of post-consumer recycled (PCR) resins will help plastics to maintain a significant proportion of the total global market, forecast at 38.6  per cent in 2034. This will be supported by other changes, such as the wider deployment of mono-material flexible plastic packaging.

The percentage of circular materials used will increase in all packaging categories across 2024-2034.

The greatest increase – and widest scope to improve circularity – comes in rigid plastic packaging. This will be driven by mandates to use higher levels of PCR content, principally for PET, with high-grade resin supplies set to increase as more deposit return schemes (DRS) are deployed.

The highest rates will remain for metal and glass. With contemporary levels already over 70 per cent, both will benefit from the wider deployment of DRS infrastructure. For fibre-based formats Europe is already a mature market for material recovery, although investment in infrastructure in North America and multiple less developed markets will improve the availability of recycled pulp.

Flexible plastics will remain the least circular packaging type, despite some improvements. This will accelerate mainly after 2030, as investment in chemical (advanced) recycling lines increases the supply of recycled polyolefin flexibles, including higher purity resins suitable for food contact.

The Future of Sustainable Packaging: Long-term Strategic Forecasts to 2034 from Smithers is available to purchase now, priced $6,750 (€6,350, £5,475).

For more information about Smithers, please visit https://www.smithers.com/services/market-reports