The global corrugated packaging market is forecast to grow from US$240 billion in 2026 to US$265 billion by 2031, with automation, regulation and e-commerce among the forces reshaping demand, according to new research from Smithers.
The forecast, published in The Future of Corrugated Packaging to 2031, represents compound annual growth of about 2 per cent over the five-year period. The study examines the market by corrugated board grade, end-use application and geography, including Australia and New Zealand.
Smithers identifies six main forces influencing the sector: automation economics, sustainability regulation, changing consumer demand, e-commerce growth, industry consolidation and geopolitics.
According to the researcher, differences in automation investment are widening the cost gap between corrugated producers, with top-quartile operators achieving operating costs 20–40 per cent below those of bottom-quartile businesses.
Regulatory change is also expected to shape investment. The EU Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation began to apply on 12 August 2026, introducing measures that include recyclability grading and extended producer responsibility fee modulation. Smithers says corrugated packaging’s high recovery rate for old corrugated containers gives the material an advantage over some competing substrates.
However, growth in tonnes is expected to trail gains in unit volumes and market value. Smithers attributes this to lightweighting, right-sizing and changing formats, including high-performance recycled containerboard, fanfold corrugated and paper mailers.
Higher-value products, including barrier-coated board and digitally printed shelf-ready packaging, are forecast to increase their share of the market at the expense of commodity grades.
Report author Eric Chartrain, associate consultant at Smithers, said the corrugated sector had entered both a cyclical and structural reset following more than two decades of relatively consistent growth.
“Unlike prior downturns driven by a single shock, the industry has absorbed multiple simultaneous disruptions,” Chartrain said, citing the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, trade tensions and continuing inflation across input costs.
“Growth is expected to recover to the 2021 peak level by 2031, but along a decidedly non-linear trajectory.”
E-commerce is expected to remain a key source of demand, led by electrical goods, forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.4 per cent, and personal and household care products at 2.3 per cent. Smithers says the PPWR’s restrictions on empty space in e-commerce packaging are also accelerating investment in right-sizing systems across fulfilment networks.
The research also points to the growth of private-label products as a factor affecting demand patterns. More than 80 per cent of consumers surveyed in the US and Europe reportedly regarded private-label products as equal or superior to branded alternatives, contributing to flatter volumes in several product categories.
The report provides market forecasts by containerboard and corrugated board grade, application and region. End-use categories include processed and fresh food, beverages, personal and household care, chemicals, electrical goods and vehicle parts. It is available from Smithers for US$6750.
