For fast-moving consumer goods brands, packaging strategies are being reshaped by growing consumer scepticism, tighter regulation and mounting pressure to move beyond long-standing sustainability narratives.
Recent market research from Mintel, Innova Market Insights, Euromonitor and ThePackHub suggests the industry is entering a new phase, one where recyclability alone is no longer enough, and where material reduction, performance-led innovation and transparency are becoming central to packaging decision-making.
While each research group approaches the issue from a different angle, a consistent picture is emerging: the future of FMCG packaging will be defined by credibility, functionality and systems-based thinking.
Recycling reality check
According to Mintel in its 2026 Global Packaging Predictions report, the packaging industry is approaching a critical turning point.
Mintel argues that years of sustainability messaging have created a belief that recyclable packaging equates to environmental responsibility. However, consumers are increasingly realising that much of the plastic labelled “recyclable” is never actually recycled.
Mintel describes this as “The End of the Recycling Myth”, warning that the gap between expectation and reality is contributing to recycling fatigue and a growing trust deficit for brands.
The company identifies three core takeaways shaping the next phase of packaging sustainability.
First, Mintel points to what it calls the ‘great plastic reckoning’. As awareness grows around the limitations of recycling infrastructure, consumers are questioning whether existing packaging systems are genuinely sustainable. Mintel suggests brands will need to shift away from relying on recyclability claims and instead adopt more authentic solutions to address plastic use.
Second, the report highlights a greenwash hangover, as brands struggle to meet sustainability pledges made earlier in the decade. As target deadlines approach, Mintel notes increasing scrutiny from both regulators and consumers, signalling the end of broad, unsubstantiated “eco” claims.
Finally, Mintel argues that the future of packaging lies beyond the bin. Rather than focusing solely on recyclability, the next generation of packaging strategies will prioritise reducing reliance on plastic, expanding reuse models, and being transparent about what can and cannot be fixed.
According to Mintel, simplicity, honesty and circularity will define the brands that retain consumer trust through 2030 and beyond.
Material matters
While Mintel frames the issue through the lens of consumer trust, Innova Market Insights takes a more product and material-focused view.
In its Food Packaging Trends: Global Market Overview (January 2026), Innova highlights a rapid shift away from plastics toward paper-based packaging across food and beverage categories. The move is being driven by sustainability expectations, regulatory pressure and consumer interest in renewable materials.
Innova identifies hot drinks, confectionery and dairy as leading categories for paper-based packaging launches, with positive growth recorded since 2020. However, the firm cautions that sustainability alone is not enough.
According to Innova, the key challenge for paper-based packaging lies in performance. Moisture resistance, barrier properties and shelf-life remain critical requirements for food packaging, meaning brands must ensure fibre-based alternatives can deliver the same functionality as plastic.
As a result, Innova says innovation is increasingly focused on high-performance paper solutions. These include heat-sealable papers for dry foods, moisture-resistant coatings, recyclable laminates and lightweight paper containers designed to reduce plastic content without compromising protection.
Innova also points to early mainstream examples, such as PepsiCo Netherlands’ launch of fully recyclable cardboard snack boxes for Lay’s and Doritos, replacing traditional plastic formats while maintaining functionality and shelf impact.
Looking ahead, Innova suggests the next phase of paper-based packaging will involve improved barrier materials, localised sourcing and better integration with recycling systems, shifting the conversation from simple material substitution to system-wide performance.
Innovation in-market
Providing a view of what is already reaching the market, packaging innovation resource ThePackHub highlights how sustainability-led redesign is shaping FMCG packaging innovation globally.
According to ThePackHub, brands are increasingly focused on plastic reduction, fibre substitution and lightweighting as baseline expectations rather than premium initiatives. The use of post-consumer recycled (PCR) content remains a key lever, particularly as brands work toward regulatory and voluntary targets.
ThePackHub also identifies strong momentum behind mono-material packaging structures, particularly in flexible formats, as brands seek to simplify recycling and improve circular outcomes.
Beyond material choices, ThePackHub notes growing adoption of reuse and refill initiatives, signalling a shift away from single-use thinking toward packaging systems designed for extended life.
Digital features are also playing a growing role. QR codes and smart packaging tools are being used to provide transparency around materials, sourcing and disposal, reflecting the industry’s response to increased scrutiny of sustainability claims.
Regulation is another major driver. According to ThePackHub, frameworks such as Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) are accelerating innovation by forcing brands to take greater responsibility for the end-of-life impact of packaging.
Consumer behaviour
While not packaging-specific, Euromonitor’s 2026 Global Consumer Trends report provides useful context for understanding why these shifts are accelerating.
Euromonitor identifies a growing consumer desire for simplicity and balance, as shoppers navigate economic uncertainty and information overload. In packaging terms, this translates to clearer communication, less clutter, and more functional design.
The firm also talks about a preference for authenticity over performative sustainability, reinforcing Mintel’s findings around greenwashing fatigue. Consumers are increasingly drawn to brands that are honest about trade-offs and back claims with evidence.
Euromonitor further notes that science-backed wellbeing is shaping purchasing decisions, particularly in health, beauty and functional food categories. This is increasing demand for packaging that supports credibility, traceability and information access.
Rethink and reset
Overall, the research cited suggests FMCG packaging in 2026 is entering a post-recycling reset as the recycling narrative that has dominated sustainability discussions for more than a decade is losing credibility. Material substitution, particularly paper-based packaging, is accelerating, but only where performance challenges can be solved. Brands are already taking action, recognising that the next phase of packaging innovation will be less about claims and more about performance and practical circularity.
This article was first published in PKN Packaging News March 2026 issue, page 16.
