Fibre-based packaging is expected to become the dominant material for sustainable food packaging within the next two decades, according to a new study by Smithers and UPM Specialty Materials, which identifies regulation, innovation and recycling infrastructure as the key forces shaping the sector's future.
The report, Sustainable Food Packaging to 2045, draws on the views of more than 230 packaging professionals from across the global value chain to assess how food packaging is expected to evolve over the next 20 years.
Respondents forecast fibre-based materials will increase their share of the global food packaging market from 37 per cent today to 42 per cent by 2045. Around 71 per cent believe fibre will be regarded as the most sustainable packaging option, supported by advances in barrier coatings that are expanding its suitability for applications traditionally dominated by plastics.
Janne Varvemaa, director of products and technology at UPM Specialty Materials, said the findings reflected growing momentum behind fibre-based packaging.
"We're encouraged to see strong momentum behind fibre-based packaging, driven by regulation, consumer demand, and ongoing innovation in barrier technologies. Our role is to support customers in this transition with high-performance, sustainable solutions that do not compromise on functionality."
The report also suggests sustainability will shift from being a competitive differentiator to a regulatory requirement. Seventy-one per cent of respondents expect governments to mandate sustainability requirements by 2045, while 88 per cent believe regulation will fundamentally influence future packaging choices.
Extended producer responsibility (EPR) schemes and eco-modulation are expected to play an increasingly significant role in material selection, favouring recyclable packaging while placing greater financial pressure on materials that are more difficult to recover.
Recycling rates are also expected to improve, with respondents forecasting global recycling will increase from 31 per cent in 2030 to 37 per cent by 2045. However, the study notes that landfill and energy recovery through incineration are likely to remain part of the waste management mix for many years.
Regional differences are also expected to persist. While Europe is seen as leading progress in recycling systems and regulatory development, respondents identified infrastructure and policy challenges that could slow adoption across the Asia-Pacific region and the United States.
Ciaran Little, vice president of the global consulting information division at Smithers, said regulation and innovation were expected to continue driving material development.
"The evidence is clear that the industry will continue to focus on improving recycling rates and regulations, particularly as EPR and eco-modulation are directly influencing material choices. Ongoing innovation in barrier technologies is also opening up new applications for fibre-based packaging to compete with plastic alternatives."
The report notes that its findings are based on industry survey responses and represent the views of participants rather than the official positions of Smithers or UPM Specialty Materials.
PKN comment: While the study reflects industry expectations rather than market forecasts, its findings align with broader global trends already influencing packaging development. Regulatory reform, particularly the expansion of EPR schemes and eco-modulation, is placing greater emphasis on designing packaging for recyclability, while advances in fibre barrier technologies continue to expand opportunities to replace plastic in selected food applications. For Australian packaging businesses preparing for packaging reform and future design requirements, the report provides a useful indication of where global investment and innovation are likely to be directed over the coming decades.
