While retail sales in Australia are forecast to continue to be soft in the June quarter, the signs are good that conditions will improve later in the year, according to the latest prediction of economic conditions by tracking pallet movements.
This quarter's edition of the AFGC-CHEP Retail Index shows the recent trend for declining growth in retail sales continued through the June quarter but predicts the rate of year-on-year growth will increase by the September quarter.
The index indicates an increase of 2.8 per cent for the three months ended 30 September 2013, up from 2.6 per cent year-on-year growth in the three months ended 30 June, which would be the third consistent quarterly decline in the rate of growth.
For the month of June, the index forecasts that the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will report year-on-year retail trade growth of 2.5 per cent and turnover of $21.9 billion.
Australian Food & Grocery Council (AFGC) chief executive, Gary Dawson, said national politics could play a large role in improving consumer sales.
"The retail environment remains challenging, reflecting subdued consumer confidence,” he said.
“Indications of growth improving later in the year once the federal election is out of the way are encouraging and would see improved consumer spending supporting retail sales growth."
The AFGC-CHEP index tracks pallet movements through CHEP's nationwide network to extrapolate on wider economic trends.
Pallet movements in the Australian retail sector show signs of retail sector recovery in the later part of 2013.
